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President Donald Trump tweeted on Friday
that "Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and
loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un
will find another path!"
Trump's statement echoes his defense
secretary Jim Mattis, that the US and its ally South Korea
have "the most precise, rehearsed, and robust defensive and
offensive capabilities on earth." In response to North Korea
announcing its intentions to possibly fire four nuclear-capable
missiles towards the US territory of Guam, Mattis had a clear
message: "Cease any consideration of actions that would lead to
the end of its regime and the destruction of its people."
Mattis himself
admitted that that a fight with North Korea
would be "more serious in terms of human suffering" than anything
since the original Korean War ended in 1953 and "a war that
fundamentally we don't want."
But as North Korea disregards international law, kills innocents,
threatens the US and its neighbors with nuclear annihilation, and
insists on unworkable terms for diplomacy, at some point the
world's biggest military super power may have to step in.
Business Insider spoke with Stratfor's Sim Tack, a senior analyst who is an
expert on North Korea, to determine exactly how the US could
carry out a crippling strike against the Hermit Kingdom.
First, a decision would need to be made.
Military action against North Korea wouldn't be pretty. Civilians
in South Korea, and possibly Japan, and US forces stationed in
the Pacific would be likely to die in the undertaking no matter
how smoothly things went.
In short, it's not a decision any US commander in chief would
make lightly.
But the US would have to choose between a full-scale destruction
of North Korea's nuclear facilities and ground forces or a
quicker attack on only the most important nuclear facilities. The
second option would focus more on crippling North Korea's nuclear
program and destroying key threats to the US and its allies.
Since a full-scale attack could lead to "mission creep that could
pull the US into a longterm conflict in East Asia," according to
Tack of Stratfor, the US would most likely focus on a quick,
surgical strike that would wipe out the bulk of North Korea's
nuclear forces.
But as North Korea may have up to 60 nuclear devices, the US
would only ever consider such a strike if war seemed unavoidable,
or Pyongyang's behavior intolerable.
Then, the opening salvo: A stealth air blitz and cruise missiles rock North Korea's nuclear facilities.
The best tools the US could use against North Korea would be
stealth aircraft like the F-22 and the B-2 bomber, Tack said.
The US would gradually position submarines, Navy ships, and
stealth aircraft at bases near North Korea in ways that avoid
provoking the Hermit Kingdom's suspicions.
"Suddenly you'd read on the news that the US has conducted these
airstrikes," Tack said.
Another bomber that would do heavy lifting above North Korea is
the B-1 Lancer. Every time North Korea acts up with a missile
test, the US responds by flying over the Korean Peninsula with
this long-range, high-payload bomber.
The B-1 crews train with South Korean and Japanese fighters and
can deliver massive 30,000-pound bombs on deep underground
bunkers in North Korea - perfect for taking out Kim in an
underground bunker.
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The first targets ...
The initial targets would include nuclear reactors,
missile-production facilities, and launching pads for
intercontinental ballistic missiles, Tack said.
Cruise missiles would pour in from the sea, F-22s would target
North Korea's rudimentary air defenses, and B-2s would pound
every known missile site.
Planes like the F-35 and the F-22 would frantically hunt down
mobile missile launchers, which can hide all over North Korea's
mountainous terrain. In the event that North Korea does get off a
missile, the US and South Korea have layered missile defenses
that would attempt to shoot it out of the sky.
Immediately civilians in Seoul would brace for shelling. Air and
missile defenses would go on high alert, and the 30,000 US troops
in South Korea would vacate their bases, which would be a prime
target for missile strikes, and line the border to repel a flood
of North Korean troops.
Next, the US would try to limit North Korean retaliation.
Once the US has committed the initial strike against North Korea,
how does Kim Jong Un respond?
Even with its nuclear facilities in ashes and most of its command
and control destroyed, "North Korea has a lot of options," Tack
said. "They have their massive, massive conventional artillery
options that can start firing at South Korea in a split second."
But as the graphic below shows, most North Korean artillery can't
reach Seoul, the South Korean capital.
Additionally, Seoul has significant underground bunkers and
infrastructure to quickly shield its citizens, though some
measure of damage to the city would be unavoidable.
According to Tack, much of this artillery would instead fire on
the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas, detonating mines
so North Korean ground forces could push through. Also within
range would be US forces near the DMZ.
Some 25,000 American troops are stationed in South Korea, and
they would face grave danger from North Korea's vast artillery
installations.
But the North Korean artillery isn't top of the line. It could
focus on slamming US forces, or it could focus on hitting Seoul,
but splitting fire between the two targets would limit the impact
of its longer-range systems.
Additionally, as the artillery starts to fire, it becomes an
exposed target for US aircraft.
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The next phase of the battle would be underwater.
North Korea has a submarine that can launch nuclear ballistic
missiles, which would represent a big risk to US forces as it can
sail outside the range of established missile defenses.
Fortunately for the US, it's entirely unclear if North Korea has
mastered its submarine-launch technology and the best submarine
hunters in the world sail with the US Navy.
Helicopters would drop special listening buoys, destroyers would
use their advanced radars, and US subs would listen for anything
unusual in the deep. North Korea's antique submarine would hardly
be a match for the combined efforts of the US, South Korea, and
Japan.
While the submarine would greatly complicate the operation, it
would most likely find itself at the bottom of the ocean before
it could do any meaningful damage.
What happens if Kim Jong Un is killed?
"Decapitation," or the removal of the Kim regime, would be a huge
blow to the fiercely autocratic Hermit Kingdom.
Reports have indicated Kim Jong Un has engaged in a vicious campaign to
execute senior officials with packs of dogs, mortar fire, and
antiaircraft guns for a simple reason, according to Tack: They
have ties to China.
Kim's removal of anyone senior with ties to China means he has
consolidated power within his country to a degree that makes him
necessary to the country's functioning.
Without a leader, North Korean forces would face a severe blow to
their morale as well as their command structure, but it wouldn't
end the fight.
"Technically North Korea is under the rule of their 'forever
leader' Kim Il Sung," Tack said, adding that "a decapitation
strike wouldn't guarantee that the structures below him wouldn't
fall apart, but it would be a damn tricky problem for those that
remain after him."
North Koreans aren't shy about putting their leader first,
however, and at the first indication of an attack, Kim would most
likely be tucked away in a bunker deep underground during the
attack.
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Then the US defends.
"If North Korea doesn't retaliate, they've lost capability and
look weak," Tack said.
Few would expect North Korea to go quietly after suffering even a
crippling attack.
Through massive tunnels bored under the DMZ, North Korea would
try to pour ground troops into the South.
"The ground-warfare element is a big part of this," Tack said. "I
think that the most likely way that would play out would be the
fight in the DMZ area," where the US would not try to invade
North Korea but rather would defend its position in the South.
Though North Korea's air force is small and outdated, it jets
would need to be a target of the US and allied forces.
Meanwhile ...
US special operations forces, after North Korea's air defenses
have been destroyed, would parachute in with the goal of
destroying or deactivating mobile launchers and other offensive
equipment.
The US would face a big challenge in trying to hunt down some 200
missile launchers throughout North Korea, some of which have
treads to enter very difficult terrain where US recon planes
would struggle to spot them.
US special forces would establish themselves at key logistical
junctures, observe the North Koreans' movements, and then relay
that to US air assets.
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So how does this all end?
North Korea is neither a house of cards nor an impenetrable
fortress.
Additionally, the resolve of the North Koreans remains a mystery.
North Korea successfully estimated that the international
community would be unwilling to intervene as it quietly became a
nuclear power, but that calculation could become its undoing.
North Korea would most likely launch cyberattacks, possibly
shutting down parts of the US or allies' power grids, but US
Cyber Command would prepare for that.
North Korea would most likely destroy some US military
installations, lay waste to some small portion of Seoul, and get
a handful of missiles fired - but again, US and allied planners
would stand ready for that.
In the end, it would be a brutal, bloody conflict, but Tack said
even the propaganda-saturated North Koreans must be aware of
their disadvantages.
Even after a devastating missile attack, some of North Korea's
nuclear stockpile would most likely remain hidden. Some element
of the remaining North Korean forces could stage a retaliation,
but what would be the point?
"If they chose to go the route of conducting a large-scale
retaliation, they're inviting a continuation of the conflict that
eventually they cannot win ... Nobody in this whole game is going
to believe that North Korea can win a war against the US, South
Korea, and Japan," Tack concluded.
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