In the long and complex history of United Technologies, 2018 will likely be remembered as the year that Rockwell Collins was acquired and the company announced it would return to its roots as an aviation enterprise by separating from its non-aerospace units. No doubt about it, the transformation of United Technologies from a major supplier of aircraft engines, electronics and mechanical equipment into the biggest such supplier in the world ($50 billion in revenues) is a significant development.
However, it may be that the most important development shaping the company’s future success in 2018 was barely noticed by many outsiders. The Geared Turbofan (GTF) engine that its Pratt & Whitney unit spent 20 years and $10 billion developing has won broad acceptance among carriers around the world by demonstrating it can deliver all the promised benefits in fuel efficiency, noise reduction and emissions abatement while sustaining high rates of reliability.
There’s been plenty of coverage of the Geared Turbofan this year, but few writers seem to grasp that the engine’s success in 2018 represents a watershed in the history of aircraft propulsion. Every turbofan up to this point has run its front end and back end at the same speed – even though optimum efficiency dictates running the fan at the front much slower than the compressor and turbine elements in the back. The GTF changes all that by introducing 3:1 reduction gears between front and back, allowing each part of the engine to operate at the most efficient speed.
It’s a breakthrough, but like many other revolutionary technologies, GTF’s introduction was accompanied by challenges. Much of the coverage following its introduction in 2016 focused on those challenges. The early challenges have now been resolved, and Pratt is poised to take market share from its competitors. This seems like a good time to recap what Pratt & Whitney – a contributor to my think tank – has accomplished, because it is going to change the face of aviation.
Strong demand. In the twelve months ending November 30, Pratt received 2,000 orders and commitments for Geared Turbofans, raising the total to 10,000. During 2018 ten more carriers joined the community of users, raising the total number of airlines adopting the new propulsion system to over 30. Major recent orders have been received from Delta, Jet Blue and Swiss, mainly to equip Airbus A320neo aircraft and the recently renamed Airbus A220 (formerly Bombardier’s CSeries). The GTF has also been adopted by regional jet makers Embraer, Irkut and Mitsubishi.
Surging deliveries. Pratt & Whitney has met the commitment made by United Technologies Chairman Greg Hayes earlier this year to deliver 800 Geared Turbofans in 2018, more than doubling the 374 engines delivered in 2017. Deliveries will continue ramping up in the years ahead from five dedicated production centers, and all new production engines incorporate modifications to seals and other items that delayed deliveries early in the year. Deliveries are now on track. As of December 17, 269 A320s powered by GTF have been delivered to airlines, 51 A220s and four Embraer E190-E2s.
Proven performance. Pratt & Whitney promised that jetliners equipped with the GTF would achieve a 16% reduction in fuel consumption, a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and a 75% reduction in noise. All of those thresholds have been achieved, with a typical GTF saving 100 gallons of fuel per flight hour. The fuel savings will enable carriers to fly further, or transport more passengers, or reduce operating costs; when oil prices average $50 per barrel, fuel can represent a third of the cost structure for some economy airlines. The noise reduction potentially enables carriers to use airports during times that were previously prohibited.
Promising reliability. As 2018 began, some operators were reporting durability issues with seals and a combustor panel, but those concerns have been addressed and appropriate fixes were made to the engines already delivered. Provisions have also been made to have more spare engines available on short notice. The Geared Turbofan family is now exhibiting exceptional reliability for a transformational system that debuted less than three years ago: engine dispatch reliability, meaning availability, on A320neo is 99.9%, on A220 99.8%, and on E190-E2 100%.
Global network. As Pratt & Whitney ramps up GTF production and deliveries, it is also rapidly building out its global network of maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities. This is not new territory for Pratt, since its engines power over a quarter of the global jetliner fleet. It already has more than 40 overhaul and maintenance sites around the world. But Geared Turbofan is a different kind of engine, so Pratt has been expanding support facilities and signing up partners at a steady pace. Delta TechOps became a partner in supporting GTF in the spring (it will start servicing engines next year), and Lufthansa Technik was already onboard. Foreign engine makers MTU and IHI, which contribute parts to Geared Turbofan, have their own facilities for supporting the engines.
Thus, the picture of Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbofan that emerges at year’s end is of a program that is rapidly gaining ground. It has a way to go before it catches up with General Electric Aviation – GTF isn’t offered on Boeing’s 737 – but over the long run it is hard to see how GE can match Pratt’s performance without introducing its own geared architecture. That will take many years, and in the meantime Pratt is already talking with Boeing about scaling up GTF technology for the company’s next widebody transport. It looks like Greg Hayes was right when he predicted Geared Turbofan will generate $750 billion in revenue across its lifetime. Not bad for a $10 billion investment.
