Russia's Defeat in Ukraine Will Deter China Attack on Taiwan: Ex-NATO Chief

A Russian military defeat in Ukraine would deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan, former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Thursday as he urged Western leaders not to repeat the mistakes that emboldened President Vladimir Putin.

"The most important way to deter a Chinese move on Taiwan is to ensure a Ukrainian victory in the current conflict," Rasmussen said. "If Russia can gain territory and establish a new status quo by force, it will set a precedent. Dictators everywhere will learn that, ultimately, military aggression works."

A hot war in the Taiwan Strait would have "global repercussions," said Rasmussen. "So we have a global interest in preventing those tensions from escalating into an armed conflict."

Rasmussen, who was secretary general of the North Atlantic Alliance between 2009 and 2014, welcomed President Joe Biden's repeated pledges to come to Taiwan's defense. The former prime minister of Denmark also welcomed Taiwan's decision to lengthen its compulsory military service.

"Across the Taiwan Strait, we see an aggressive autocracy threatening a smaller democratic state. The parallels with Russia and Ukraine are hard to ignore," Rasmussen said in remarks a day after meeting President Tsai Ing-wen. "We must not make the same mistakes with Xi Jinping that we did with Vladimir Putin."

Russia's president, Rasmussen said, didn't expect the West to come together to oppose his invasion of Ukraine. Now, China's leader was watching closely, he said.

"Any attempt by China to change the status quo in Taiwan by force should spark an equally unified response, and we must make this clear to China now," the ex-NATO leader said. "China is far more reliant on global supply chains than Russia. Spelling out the severe economic consequences of any attack now would be a powerful deterrent."

Putin's attack against Ukraine was a "wake-up call," he said. "We have built a Europe based on security provided by the United States, cheap goods from China and cheap gas from Russia. That model doesn't work any longer."

"Overall, we have been too naive when it comes to Russia. We have underestimated the ambitions and brutality of President Putin. At the same time, we have actually overestimated the strength of the Russian military," Rasmussen said at a press conference in Taipei. "But I think the most important lesson to be learned is autocrats like Putin do not respect weakness. They only respect firmness and unity among the democratic allies. "

Rasmussen visited Taipei in his capacity as founder of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation, a nonprofit blacklisted by Beijing for encouraging the West to rally behind Taiwan's democratic government. It was his first visit to the island since 1994, but the first ever by a former NATO head.

China asserts Taiwan as its own, although Taipei rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims. Mao Ning, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, said in response to the high-profile visit: "The Taiwan question is not about democracy, but about China's territorial integrity and unification."

Taiwan, inspired by Ukraine, has pledged millions of dollars in aid to help sustain the Eastern European nation's critical infrastructure so it can survive Russia's months-long onslaught.

Taipei's unofficial relations with Moscow, traditionally led by economic links, also have been set back by the war and Putin's increasing willingness to openly back China's political claim to the island.

Taiwan's economic affairs ministry said Wednesday that it had expanded the scope of sanctions against Russia and Belarus by cutting off the countries from high-tech, military-use items, including certain materials as well as machine and computer parts.

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